With the Strait of Hormuz remaining shuttered and fuel costs high, what is the changing picture for Irish tourism over summer 2026 and beyond?
Hotel & Restaurant Times examines how Middle East conflict, fuel disruption and fragile consumer confidence are reshaping the outlook for Irish tourism
Irish tourism businesses are nervous about the prospects for tourism beyond summer 2026, due to ramifications from conflict in the Middle East.
“If we were having this conversation two months ago, I would have said the industry was optimistic about the full year but now we’re a good bit more nervous,” Eoghan O’Mara Walsh, chief executive of the Irish Tourism Industry Confederation (ITIC) told Hotel & Restaurant Times. “We are uncertain at the moment about future bookings.”
Inbound Tourism Operators Association of Ireland (ITOA), which deals entirely with B2B (Business-to-Business), is more uncertain about what awaits them in 2027.
“The booking pace performance for 2027 is not on a par with this time last year for 2026,” said Alva Pearson Downey, CEO of ITOA. “We don’t know how long the situation will continue. It would be wrong to overstate the risk or the impact. 2027 can recover if everything was to go away. But the longer it continues, the longer it’s going to present challenges around pricing.”
Airline disruption raises fears over travel costs
Since the war began in February 2026, when the US and Israel began targeting sites in Iran, the airline industry has been in flux due to rising fuel costs. In April, Lufthansa removed 20,000 short-haul flights from its schedule, including a route from Cork to Frankfurt. Aer Lingus cut hundreds of flights from its schedule in the same month due to what it described as “mandatory maintenance”, and Spirit Airlines in the US went bust in early May. According to data from Cirium, an airline analytics company, global airlines cut 13,000 flights in May.
Business tourism is relatively confident about summer 2026
Business tourism is relatively confident about summer 2026, primarily because most of its bookings were banked before the war broke out. ITOA undertook a snap survey of its members who reported that their expectations for revenue this year would “exceed or match” 2025. “They’re not seeing significant cancellations,” said Alva. “The majority of our business for summer 2026 was already on the books. Our members liaised with different suppliers, including the airlines. They were able to reiterate confidence. So the bookings held.”
Thornier landscape for leisure tourism
For leisure tourism, however, the landscape looks thornier.
Q3 “could present a risk in terms of visitor numbers,” according to Paul Gallagher, Chief Executive of the Irish Hotels Federation, “particularly as international travel costs and household budgets come under renewed pressure.” At this stage, he added, “it is too soon to predict how this will play out.”
Uncertainty is not tourism’s friend and mixed messages from airlines have not helped confidence. In April, Michael O’Leary, Ryanair CEO, warned of a jet fuel shortage if the conflict in the Middle East was not resolved. In May, O’Leary announced that flights will now be unaffected. Price rises, however, appear inevitable. Research from Teneo found that airfares have risen 24% since the conflict began (in comparison to the same period in 2025).
Even if the impasse over the Strait of Hormuz is resolved, it may take months to remove mines from the waterway and years to reconstruct bombed oil facilities.
“The oil shock and the impact on jet fuel are going to lead to increased airfares,” noted Eoghan O’Mara Walsh, “and that risks damaging demand from all markets.”
Gulf and North American markets face pressure
The market most likely to be impacted is the Gulf region, where carriers such as Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad, ground to a halt for weeks. Each year, according to ITIC, Irish tourism receives between €450m to €500m worth of revenue from the Middle East or via the Middle East. “That,” said Eoghan, “is now jeopardised.”
The ITIC chief was unsure the degree to which the conflict has spooked confidence in consumer markets overseas. The North American market was traditionally the strongest performer for ITIC. Gas prices across the US have risen to an average $4.50 a gallon (a jump of over 47% from the start of the year). As a result of these rising prices, 65% of Americans have altered summer travel plans, according to a survey by US News & World Report, an American media company.
Paul Gallagher of the IHF is amongst those in Ireland “concerned about the broader economic ripple effects of a prolonged conflict… and the potential negative implications this could have for consumer sentiment in key overseas markets.” But could this instability also offer opportunities? Some destination management companies in Ireland have seen an uptake in inquiries about business conferences from people who previously planned to hold events in Dubai and elsewhere in the UAE, said Alva Pearson Downey.
Staycations and safe-haven appeal may soften the blow
Ireland is considered a safe, stable and welcoming destination.
“Ireland, a little island on the western edge of Europe, could be seen as a safe haven,” agreed Eoghan O’Mara Walsh. “Europeans who might have gone to the Middle East, Turkey or Cyprus, for holiday might now go instead to Northern Europe. Maybe Ireland will pick up a bit of business. That might be one positive that comes out of this.”
Fáilte Ireland has started a €10m marketing campaign, Find Yourself on a Short Break, encouraging Irish people to take breaks at home. Campaigns around slow tourism also encourage local business.
“If places like Turkey in the Middle East are no longer an option for the Irish consumer, the ‘staycation’ market may perform better,” continued Eoghan. “The domestic market is going to be of increased importance this summer. Irish people rediscovered Ireland during COVID. Maybe more Irish people will staycation this summer because of the international context.”
ITOA members are reassuring their customers who have been phoning with concerns around their travel plans.
“People are happy at the minute, albeit they need a lot of reassurance,” remarked Alva Pearson Downey. “There’s a lot of time being spent on the phone giving them confidence, but they’re holding their bookings.”
Positives messaging from airlines and industry in Ireland are also helping. Shannon Airport recently announced the return of two daily seasonal routes to the US: United Airlines’ non-stop service to Chicago, O’Hare; and Delta’s service to New York, JFK. According to the DAA, 3.11 million passengers passed through Dublin Airport in April, an increase of 1.1% on the same month in 2025. Government plans to remove the 32 million passenger-per-year cap has also been applauded. The 9% VAT rate for food services also gives the sector hope.
“Let’s focus on what we can control,” said Eoghan O’Mara Walsh. “External events – bombings over Iran and the retaliation – are beyond our control.” We must also be careful to offer what we can control, he added: “value for money and a compelling visitor experience.”
The longer the conflict goes on, however the greater the long term consequences for Irish tourism.
“2027 could be a concern,” admitted Alva Pearson Downey. “But we don’t want to encourage fear either. We are in May 2026, right now, so there is time. I think it would be wrong to overstate the risk or the impact of what is happening because it can still turn itself back around. But for now, 2026 is good. We are happy and we are positive.”
